Tensions Brew in Southeast Asia

Part of an escalating trend of tension and mistrust between the Asian nations of China and Vietnam, on Thursday China is reported to have sent its largest patrol ship, the Haixun-31, into waters currently disputed by Vietnamese sovereignty. This Chinese military action, which could be seen as a move meant to intimidate and "bully" the Vietnamese government, was greeted with increased military drills in the area as well as a declaration that military conscription will commence in response to the current threat. Tensions between the two nations are at an all time high; for some the threat of war is extremely real. A storm is brewing in the South China Sea, and should it not be controlled, the entire region may be engulfed.

The main dispute between the two nations focuses on the subject of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea; this resource-rich archipelago has been a subject of tension and controversy for many years. Actual conflict occurred in 1988 when China sunk three Vietnamese vessels around the Spratly region. In 1991, China laid out an official claim to the chain of islands; however, that claim has been disputed by Vietnam and has never been accepted by the UN and the greater international community. As of now, China has no more right to the islands as anybody else. Rather, China is deciding to flex its military muscles with increased military activity in this disputed and tense area.
Thursday's events, including the sighting of the Chinese vessel in the disputed waters and the swift denouncement from the Vietnamese government, illustrate how tensions between the two nations are a high point for the last twenty years, possibly for all time. However, considering China to be the only aggressor does not address the root of the problem. Contributing to the tensions of the region is "...Vietnam’s staging of a live-fire exercise in the area and China’s denouncement of it." Therefore, through Vietnam's military exercises, as well as the announcement of a new military draft, it is apparent that Vietnam is not apathetically standing back while China claims disputed territory; Vietnam is actively opposing the Chinese and appears to be readying itself for a potential military conflict.
However, besides the obvious economic benefits of gaining control of the Spratly Islands, China's motives in its inflammation of the Vietnam situation appear to be obscure. Simply, China may be attempting to exert its power and influence in the region; it may feel that by using imperialist tactics and military force to intimidate other nations, it could be able to dominate them both economically and politically. However, the question of why remains.

A possible answer to that question could lie in the politics of Hu Jintao. The current Chinese President, Jintao will not return to power following an election in 2012. Before he leaves office, Jinatao may attempt to take a firm stand against its regional rival Vietnam and the interests of America and the West. By annexing the Spratly Islands, Chinese nationalism could be aroused and could therefore lend popular support to whichever candidate is best associated with the idea of military action. Therefore, both the old government and the new potential candidates would see the Spratly issue as a possible poll-booster; success would provide the incumbent with support and a legacy following exit from office, while a candidate that supports Chinese nationalistic ideals would garner a great deal of popular support among the Chinese people (see Obama, Barack, and bin Laden, Osama).

China could also be using this military challenge to taunt or test the will of the UN and America in the face of Chinese aggression. Dean Cheng of the Heritage Foundation stated: “This may well be a test. To see - ok- we’ve had these summits, we’ve said that we want better relations: Are you going to jeopardize that promise of better relations now by interacting on behalf of the Southeast Asians or with the Southeast Asians over issues the Chinese feel is their territorial rights." Similar to the situation in the Middle East, many wonder whether the US would attempt to maintain its image as a protector of democracy and the oppressed even if such actions cost America diplomatic relations with an important power. America may not take military action against Syria in order not to anger Iran; similarly, the US may not attempt to help Vietnam for risk of alienating the powerful Chinese government. China may hope that the US responds passively to the recent events; should America do otherwise, China would see the fragility of the alliance and could possibly cut diplomatic ties.

China and Vietnam have a history of disputes, especially over the debated waters near the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. China may have many motivations for provoking the Vietnamese into preparing for war; however, the fact remains that tensions are only going to increase over the next few days and weeks between the two countries. China is widely acknowledged as a superpower; in terms of military force Vietnam would be no match. Therefore, the US, UN, and NATO must watch the situation closely and attempt to use verbal condemnations to solve the problem peacefully. Should a war break out and any power allies with China, a world war could be on the horizon. Therefore, the option for all involved is for China to cease its aggression and for diplomacy to return before this Asian Cold War spirals out of control.