US meltdown boosts Russia's place

By Kavi Chongkitthavorn
The Nation

The US financial meltdown and its global fallout have boosted Russia's place in the world, especially in Southeast Asia. The crisis came at just the time when Russia had made it clear it is a great power to be reckoned with in the new global scheme of things. It was no longer the broken empire it once was. With booming oil and gas sales and huge foreign currency reserves, Russia is resurrecting. Its growing politฌical and economic clout is gradually being felt in the region after a nearly 17-year absence.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall and the disintegration of the former Soviet Union in 1991, the overall Russian influฌence in Southeast Asia receded rapidly. Military ties and developmental assisฌtance, which used to be the cornerstone of Moscow's ties with countries in the region such as Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos were no longer there.

So far, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev's latest pronouncement of a fivepoint foreign policy has escaped close scrutiny within the region, which was the hotbed of the fivedecade Cold War confrontation.

Russia has rightly emphasised the importance of adherence to internationฌal law as the first priority. Following the Russian troops crossing the Georgian border and recognising Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent, suspicions were high the world over of Moscow's intention. The rest of its diplomatic thrusts focused on the imperative of a multipolar world and the desire to be friends with all countries in the world because Russia does not want to live in isolation.

The most interesting aspects of Russian new foreign policy are the great emphasis on its "privileged interests" in regions outside its borders and the proฌtection of Russian citizens and business interests worldwide. Obviously, most of the Western analysts have so far zeroed in on the countries which broke away from the former Soviet Union such as Ukraine, Georgia and others in Central Asia. Some of them have allied themฌselves with the US and European defence cooperation schemes.

Asean leaders have generally viewed the latest Russian assertiveness primaฌrily as direct reactions, mainly towards the West, especially on the crisis in Georgia and the planned expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. They do not see the possibility of a return of the Cold War because of late AseanRussia relations have been focused on economic and business affairs.

At a joint AseanRussian cooperation committee meeting held in St Petersburg early this month, both sides discussed ways to strengthen their cooperation at all levels including sciฌence and technology and culture. They did not touch on any security issues or concerns. Asean also thanked Russia's contribution of US$500,000 for the AseanRussian Dialogue Partnership Fund, which showed Moscow's firm commitment to promote the AseanRussia dialogue.

In more ways than one, Asean has yet to fully assess - or look into the eyes of Moscow, as one Thai diplomat put it - Russia's new diplomatic clout and its short and longterm impacts on the region as a whole. That helps explain why Asean still does not have any common approach towards Russia. In the past, such strong words would have sent a chill through the grouping's spine.

Judging from past security involveฌments and policies, Moscow has a clear objective to counter US influence in the region (which is also quite similar to China's).

During the Cold War, the regional concerns among the noncommunist countries were the Soviet Union's supฌport of proxy wars in Vietnam and Cambodia, including Moscow's military outreach in Cam Ranh Bay. Now Southeast Asia has been brought together under the Asean umbrella. This obviously represents the region in which Russia has privileged interests.

In the past five years, after the Asean summit in Phnom Penh in 2003, Russia has quietly and confidently been buildฌing up ties with Asean, which subseฌquently led to its accession to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation a year later.

The first AseanRussian summit was held in Kuala Lumpur in 2005 followed by President Vladimir Putin's dramatic appearance as the guest of honour at the East Asian Summit (EAS), which was considered a preview of Russia's ambition in this region. Moscow has made no qualms about wanting to join EAS. But Asean has been reluctant as it does not want to alienate the US. The plan to institutionalise the AseanRussian summit has also been delayed.

At present, Russia has established more dialogue mechanisms to strengthฌen the whole gamut of the 11year old AseanRussia relations than the 31yearold AseanUS relations. After all, the leaders of Asean and the US have yet to meet exclusively.

Within Asean, it must be reiterated here, Thailand would be most affected by the new Russian assertiveness. Apart from being one of the closest allies of the US, Thailand also has extensive ecoฌnomic and trade relations with Russia. It has been Russia's largest trading partner in the past years with the balฌance of trade hugely in Russia's favour. In recent years, the numbers of Russian tourists have swollen to nearly 300,000 including those who have taken resiฌdence over here.

In the coming months, the fate of Viktor Bout, the infamous Russian arms trader arrested by the Thai authorities in March, could determine the state of powerplay in the region between the US and Russia. Both countries want Bout extradited. It will be the first test to determine whether Russia is willing to walk the talk on protecting its citiฌzens, even ones as notorious and danฌgerous as Bout. Thailand's decision, which has been slow in coming, would be scrutinised by other Asean countries.

As the Asean chair, what Thailand does would have a great ramification for years to come.