Thailand stands to miss its chance to shine as asean chair

By Kavi Chongkittavorn

Thailand is like a monkey entangled in a huge fishnet - the more it tries to escape, the worse the situation gets.

Thailand's current situation also comes at the worst of times, as the country is taking on multiple roles within the region beginning this weekend.

Thailand will assume the Asean chair this weekend. It should be an exciting, if not historic, occasion for every Thai. After all, Thailand helped found Asean in August 1967 and will occupy this slot until the end of next year. As the first country to implement the Asean Charter, it wants to set the highest standards.

Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines, considered the most democratic Asean members, are taking longer to ratify the charter. Ongoing debates in their capitals, especially Indonesia, among intellectuals, civil-society groups and parliaments have increased the charter's creditability regarding its people-centred concept. Despite its domestic doldrums, Bangkok expects to ratify the charter when Parliament opens next month.

Over the next 18 months, dozens of summit meetings with Asean's dialogue partners and supporters from at least 27 countries will take place. Leading dialogue partners, such as Australia, China and South Korea, have expressed high hopes that Thailand's stewardship of Asean would mean increased opportunities to work together to meet future challenges in the region and foster bilateral relations with the grouping as a whole.

But continued political uncertainty at home and renewed tensions between Thailand and Cambodia over the disputed Preah Vihear Temple are posing serious threats that could further undermine Thailand's leadership role in Asean, which has been degraded continuously since 2001. At the moment, both countries are under heavy pressure due to rising nationalist sentiment that could have an impact on the well-being and security of Asean. Phnom Penh has already asked the UN to intervene. If the border situation worsens, it could also dash Thailand's longstanding plan to strengthen ties and cooperation between Asean and civil-society groups, especially to work out terms of reference for an Asean human-rights body that would provide some teeth to investigate and punish rights violators.

One would think that at such a critical time, Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej would show some leadership and vision. He has shown neither. Worse, he continues to perform his daily "freak show" without showing one iota of understanding of the implications on the country's regional and international standings that his impromptu statements have. In his weekly TV talk-show programme yesterday he made a turnaround on the controversies over the outcome of the World Heritage Committee's decision by attacking its listing of Preah Vihear.

Instead of naming a successor to Noppadon Pattama, he assigned his buddy, Deputy Prime Minister Sahas Banditkul, to attend the Asean annual meeting in Singapore beginning today. Sahas, who knows next to nothing on Thai diplomacy and Asean affairs, will have lots of explaining to do on a plethora of issues affecting Asean, including the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis, the Thai-Cambodian confrontation, as well as exchange views on the proposed regional security architecture, the Asia Pacific Community, suggested by Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd in early June.

The outgoing chair, Singapore, and Asean Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan have done a good job of steering the grouping through the uncharted waters after Nargis. To a certain degree, Asean has regained its creditability after a decade of Burma's non-compliance by convincing the Burmese junta to loosen up its restrictive guidelines on international relief workers and lift limits imposed on air-lifts operated by UN agencies conducting rescue and relief operations into the Irrawaddy Delta. Now all UN agencies and recognised international humanitarian agencies are operating inside Burma with an expanded space. But only state-run Asean media get permits to file reports from inside.

Now the litmus test will be the common action taken by Asean members on Burma in the future. In Singapore today, Asean foreign ministers will consider the report prepared by the Post-Nargis Joint Assessment teams sponsored by Asean, the UN and Burma. The comprehensive report will help international donors plan ahead and pledge their support later this week in Rangoon at the Asean-UN International Pledging Conference. The UN has recently appealed for a total of US$303 million (Bt10 billion) to continue relief and recovery operations.

Future support would hinge very much on the Burmese junta's willingness to cooperate even further. The junta leaders have been persistent in saying that the relief phase has ended and the next step involves helping those who lost their livelihoods in the great flood. International relief organisations still want more access and increased freedom of movement in affected areas. So far, approximately 80 per cent of affected areas have seen some forms of help. Cyclone victims still need clean water, shelter, and medical care to combat dengue and malaria during the monsoon season.

Resentment among international donors is still running high over the junta's refusal to accept additional aid and allow more foreign relief workers into the country. Several thousand lives could have been saved during the first two weeks. Before they commit more assistance, other countries must ensure that a better monitoring mechanism is in place, especially in the current foreign-currency exchange regime, which has already benefited the junta's pockets greatly. Such guarantees are extremely difficult, if not impossible, to attain from the junta, which has no record of transparency and accountability.

In the aftermath of Nargis, Asean and Burma have found each other's value in their relationship. Asean has to take advantage of this unique position to make sure it produces a positive political outcome, otherwise all efforts will have been in vain. Beyond this, the international community may also be finding out just what Asean as a regional organisation can do and what it can offer to a new regional order.

Coming as it does now amid a confluence of negative factors and the term of the embattled Samak government, it is doubtful whether Asean - unceremoniously baptised by Nargis - will come of age under Thailand's chairmanship.