Analysis: Thai political fight moves from streets to courts

BANGKOK--Opponents of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra have every reason to count judges as their allies after a series of court rulings dealt major blows to the five-month-old pro-Thaksin Shinawatra government. Thanks to the army-designed 2007 constitution which gave judges more oversight powers in the political arena, Thaksin's foes hope the courts will root out what they see as his "regime" after a 2006 coup and a renewed street campaign failed to do so.

Two ministers and a top politician from the People Power Party (PPP), which leads a six-party coalition, quit or were banned from politics last week after verdicts from top judges, some of whom played key roles in drafting the new charter.

More cases loom in the weeks and months ahead.

Thaksin, whose first corruption trial got fully underway this week nearly two years after the coup, and his inner circle are likely to face more graft and abuse of power charges this month.

Prime Minister and PPP leader Samak Sundaravej, a veteran political knife-fighter who campaigned on an avowedly pro-Thaksin ticket that won huge support in the countryside, is battling for his government's survival.

Three coalition partners, including the PPP, could be disbanded if they are found guilty of vote fraud, although the cases will likely take months to play out.

"It is not the end of the day for Samak yet because he has some room to maneuver," said Boonyakiat Karavekphan, a political scientist at Ramkhamhaeng University.

"He will stumble through this legal minefield and dissolve parliament and call a snap election only after he runs out of cards to play," Boonyakiat said.


Activist judges

The 2007 constitution gave more powers to the courts to act as a check and balance on elected politicians. Thaksin's riding roughshod over independent watchdog agencies during his five years in office was cited as one of the reasons for the coup.

But analysts said the judicial moves are unlikely to end the struggle between Thaksin's supporters and his opponents in the royalist and business establishment.

They say Samak's first priority will be to recruit respected experts into his embattled cabinet to revive a stuttering economy and the government's popularity, never above 50 percent since it took office in February.

Samak will also want to ensure trusted people are put in top positions in the armed forces and other key agencies during the annual government reshuffle in September, the same month the 2006 coup was launched.

Finally, analysts believe Samak will try again to amend the 2007 constitution and weaken the courts' powers, even though a previous effort was shelved in the face of street protests.

The catalyst was the Constitutional Court's ruling on Tuesday that Bangkok's backing of Cambodia's bid to list an ancient temple as a World Heritage site violated the charter because it did not have parliament's approval.

"This will be problematic for the country's diplomacy and we have to amend it," PPP spokesman Gudeb Saikrachang told Reuters after Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama was forced to resign over the issue.

Gudeb said the ruling on the joint communique with Phnom Penh was in fact an international treaty meant the government would need advance parliamentary approval for any statement after a diplomatic meeting.


Charter battle

Any bid to revamp the charter would intensify a nearly two-month old street campaign by middle-class Bangkok royalists and businessmen against Samak, whom they consider Thaksin's proxy.

But such a move would enable Samak to sidestep threats against his premiership and the disbanding of the PPP.

The Election Commission will decide on Wednesday whether Samak, a popular TV chef before he became premier, violated the charter by working for the company that broadcasts his cooking shows after taking office.

The constitution bans cabinet ministers from being an employee of a private company. Samak continued his cooking shows in the first two months of his premiership. Political activists challenged that, prompting Samak to suspend his shows.

If the Constitutional Court agrees with the EC, Samak would be forced to quit as prime minister, analysts said.

In another case, the EC is looking into whether the PPP is guilty of electoral fraud in the December poll after a top party leader was banned from politics for five years for vote buying.

The case could lead to the disbanding of the PPP by the Constitutional Court, which is already reviewing similar allegations against two minor coalition partners.

Chulalongkorn University analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak said this "unprecedented judicial assertiveness" would not heal the political polarization and rural/urban divide in Thailand and could risk compromising the judiciary as a whole.

"The fundamental root of the crisis has to do with the disparity between the countryside and Bangkok. That's something the judiciary can't resolve," he said. "In the long run, my fear is that the judiciary will be compromised. They will be seen as partisan. These decisions for or against Thaksin will fit into the polarization pattern."