Opinion: The meaning of censure

By Thitinan Pongsudhirak
The government has the numbers to ensure political survival but a major cabinet reshuffle is needed and the coalition partners will want more influential

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Thitinan Pongsudhirak is Associate Professor and Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.

The concerted movement to bring down the People Power party-led government of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej this week shifted its focus from street protests to a parliamentary censure debate. As parliament's current session ends tomorrow, the government initially wanted only to debate the Budget Bill rather than to allow a censure motion, as it has been in power for just four months.

However, the pressure from street demonstrators under the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) prompted the government to concede to a censure debate. While the government is likely to win the vote in the Lower House when the debate concludes today, Mr Samak and a clutch of his cabinet ministers will be so bruised with their credibility shaken to a point that a wide-ranging cabinet reshuffle will be needed.

After the censure debate, the PAD will continue to undermine the government's credibility and legitimacy in the streets, stymieing Mr Samak's limited ability to address pressing economic difficulties. His position after the censure debate will thus become untenable.

As the only party in opposition, the Democrat party has decided to focus its attack on only seven ministers from the PPP, leaving aside all the cabinet members from the other five coalition partners. This tactic is designed to isolate Mr Samak and the largest ruling party, opening up the possibility of coalition partners crossing over and the remote chance that Democrat party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva will cobble up an alternative coalition and scale to the premiership in the event the sitting prime minister is compelled to resign.

The opposition is now part of a three-pronged attack, led in the censure debate by the Democrats and in a separate anti-government motion by the mostly appointed portion of the Senate, as well as outside parliament by the PAD.

The beleaguered Samak government still commands almost two-thirds of MPs in the 480-member Lower House, with more than 220 under the PPP. Notwithstanding the manoeuvres during the debate, the government's numbers are sufficient to ensure political survival when the censure motion goes to a vote today.

However, the PPP's partners will gain more leverage within the ruling coalition and may try to convert it for better portfolio allotments down the line.

The opposition has had ample ammunition to take the Samak government to task. It has mostly focused on policy missteps, standard-of-living issues and alleged conflicts of interest. Central to the Democrats' censure manoeuvres has been the hot controversy surrounding Preah Vihear temple along the Thai-Cambodian border. The Samak government has inked a settlement that recognises Cambodia's sovereignty over the temple complex and its adjoining parcel of land. A verdict by the International Court of Justice in 1962 indicated that the temple belonged to Cambodia but Thai perceptions insist that its location has been, and should be, on Thai soil, despite growing accounts by respected Thai historians to the contrary.

Stirring up nationalist fervour, the PAD has accused the government of selling out to Cambodia with vested interests hidden behind the deal, an allusion to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's reported business intentions in Cambodia, with particular reference to the development of Koh Kong island.

The Preah Vihear temple affair is being shaped by the PAD and the opposition as the equivalent of Mr Thaksin's sale of his family-owned Shin Corp conglomerate to Singapore's Temasek Holdings in early 2006, which became the last straw that eventually overthrew his regime.

The Samak government did not help matters by pressing ahead without doing the necessary homework and earning public trust to settle the temple ownership, border demarcation, and registration as a World Heritage site.

While this issue is unlikely to be enough for a government downfall, it will continue to erode the government's credibility in the absence of corrective measures and adequate explanations to the public. It is incumbent on the government to take a pause on the Preah Vihear controversy in order to clarify and overcome doubts and allegations of a sell-out.

The censure debate has highlighted Mr Samak's weaknesses and his government's shortcomings. The prime minister is now embattled. He has a narrow base within PPP, which is beset with internal rumblings from different factions. Mr Samak also faces friction with other parties in the coalition. His lack of policy expertise and his ill temper have worsened his lot in the eyes of the public, fanning the PAD's flames.

At minimum, he will have to revamp his cabinet to shore up government performance. Getting rid of cabinet liabilities, such as Interior Minister Chalerm Yubamrung, would be a start, but more policy hands are needed in key economy-related portfolios. More policy coordination between ministries led by PPP and coalition partners is needed. The semblance of policy effectiveness in the face of growing hardships and rising food and energy prices is imperative.

Even if he manages a significant cabinet reshuffle and more responsive policy measures, Mr Samak will still be pressed by the PAD and its anti-government allies in parliament. His endgame will be drawn out but its denouement is likely weeks away. The key now is not whether he will be forced out well before his term ends, but how Mr Samak intends to leave the stage.

Foremost in his mind should be a transition that is within parliamentary and constitutional boundaries, not the detour and short cut that the PAD is demanding in the name of a warped paradigm called Thailand's so-called "new politics" of less representation and more nomination and appointment.