Officials plan for avian flu pandemic

OFFICIALS from six Asian countries shared fears yesterday about how various parts of society could break down in a flu pandemic, voicing concerns ranging from food and water shortages to the mass movement of panic-stricken populations.Delegates from China, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam met in Siem Reap, Cambodia, for a second day of exercises testing their ability to respond should the H5N1 bird flu virus mutate into a form that is more easily spread among humans.

Officials from agencies ranging from tourism to defense raised issues they would likely be forced to handle, including a flood of people seeking medical care in neighboring countries and a lack of public trust that could lead to social upheaval.

The participants were faced with a mock scenario that was certainly feasible: After 18 people from one Malaysian community tested positive for bird flu along with three health care workers, it was confirmed that the H5N1 virus had mutated into a form that could spread more easily among people. The virus then began to spread across the region and beyond.

The decisions made during the event, and the time it took to carry out the plans, helped the officials gauge how prepared they were for a real situation."We think this is a very dangerous point for us," said Dr Preecha Prempree, an epidemiologist from Thailand's Ministry of Health, who thinks Asia is the most likely place where a pandemic could emerge.

"We have to have cooperation in the region."The delegates referred to problems faced during the 2003 spread of the SARS virus, which emerged in Asia and killed nearly 800 people worldwide. They discussed the best strategies for protecting health care workers, keeping infected people from crossing borders and isolating the sick.

"They learned a lot from their experience with SARS, which doesn't necessarily mean they've solved all the problems that they had," said Dr Melinda Moore, a senior health researcher for the RAND Corp, a United States think tank that helped design the exercise. "But at least it's a basis for understanding where the gaps are, what the issues are - not just in the abstract but because they actually experienced them."